{"id":1983,"date":"2023-10-06T17:00:09","date_gmt":"2023-10-06T17:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aurorasaurudev.wpengine.com\/?p=1983"},"modified":"2023-11-10T17:37:34","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T17:37:34","slug":"when-can-i-see-the-aurora","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.aurorasaurus.org\/?p=1983","title":{"rendered":"When Can I See the Aurora?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Photo by Hugo Sanchez<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Space weather\u2014the everchanging conditions in space, influenced by the Sun\u2014causes a range of different effects on Earth. These happen in many different timeframes for people, technologies, and societies. One such effect is the aurora: the Northern and Southern Lights. Usually, they occur in high-latitude rings around the North and South Poles called auroral ovals, but sometimes they expand and move further toward the equator, bringing beautiful dancing lights to lower latitudes. March and September tend to be good months for it, especially during the active years of <\/span>solar maximum<\/span><\/a>. But in order for aurora to happen a whole lot has to go just right, so auroras are notoriously challenging to forecast. <\/span>Sometimes, information goes viral long before accurate predictions are realistically possible. Rule of thumb: if it\u2019s widely publicized, doublecheck the timing and see what scientists are saying! Read on to learn more.<\/b><\/p>\n

In this blog post, we\u2019ll give you a beginner-level timeline for what to expect when you want to see aurora. There are several kinds of solar activity that can cause auroras at mid-latitudes (like the northern US) and lower latitudes (like the southern US). These include coronal mass ejections, fast solar wind, and more. These originate from features on the Sun like sunspots and coronal holes. To keep it simple, in this post we will use \u201csolar storm\u201d to refer to all of them. The timings below are calculated out from when aurora might be visible.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Others may have other methods which we\u2019d also like to hear about.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Aurora chasing is <\/span>always <\/span><\/i>a game of chance<\/span><\/h2>\n

Aurora forecasting models usually look at whether there will be aurora somewhere on the planet, not necessarily in a specific place. Most importantly for lower latitudes, while there are a number of research models studying space weather, the <\/span>only<\/b> official prediction service in the US is NOAA\u2019s <\/span>Space Weather Prediction Center<\/span><\/a> (SWPC), pronounced \u201cSWIP-see\u201d for short. SWPC itself predicts space weather for their main stakeholders, but the general public is not usually part of that group. This can lead to gaps. That said, if aurora is publicized but SWPC hasn\u2019t <\/span>said anything<\/span><\/a>, be sure to wait for their analysis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The aurora is also fickle; the data can look great and it doesn\u2019t show up, or the data can look disappointing and it puts on a beautiful display. And the data are constantly changing! In addition, where aurora is predicted to <\/span>occur <\/span><\/i>in the upper atmosphere is not necessarily the same as where it is <\/span>visible<\/span><\/i>; extra-high-altitude aurora <\/span>can be seen<\/span><\/a> from a long way off. With all these variables, aurora chasing is always a <\/span>game of chance<\/span><\/a>\u2014and that\u2019s part of the fun!<\/span><\/p>\n

5 days ahead: keep an eye out for possible activity on the Sun<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"Red<\/a>You may see space weather forecasters talk about conditions on the Sun having the potential to give off solar storms. For example, there might be a nice <\/span>coronal hole<\/span><\/a> that they\u2019re watching carefully. <\/span>This is not an aurora prediction<\/b>; what they are looking at is the possibility of the Sun doing something that might in turn cause more auroras. There are still many steps that have to go just right for widespread auroras to actually happen.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What to do:<\/b><\/p>\n